The 6th May 2007 will become a historic date in the history of Scotland, and even of the United Kingdom. For the first time in 300 years – the date of the Treaty of Union between England and Scotland – a nationalist political force will rule the region. It is of course true that the Scottish National Party (SNP) defeated the Labour Party by a very short head (one single vote). The 47 nationalist MSPs who will sit in Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament) will have to make compromises with other parliamentary groups (65 members are needed to obtain an absolute majority). The SNP will form a minority government and, as a sign of its leftist tendencies, has made an alliance with the Green Party (2 members). This is however a magnificent victory achieved by the nationalist camp, putting an end to a half-century of Labour dominance in Scotland.

Since the birth of the struggle for Scottish independence in the 70s, the SNP has never held as many trump cards which would let them to sabotage the long-established political balance. The march towards power had however not been a straight line over the last 30 years. Initially regarded condescendingly by London as a “cultural” phenomenon, the nationalist cause grew stronger after 1974, the year in which the SNP beat the Conservative Party into third position (7 MPs [at Westminster] in the election in February 1974 and 11 in October 1974). The SNP’s power grew, basing its electoral and ideological progress on a clear leftist course. In 1975 the Red Paper on Scotland was published, a collection of essays written by left-wing Scottish academics under the editorship of ….. Gordon Brown. These texts marked a significant ideological turning-point because, for the first time, the nationalist point of view was being taken seriously. At the same time, a discovery of major oil reserves in the North Sea (the “Scottish oil”) allowed the nationalists to foresee total economic autonomy vis-à-vis the Union.

The Scottish struggle for independence, however, has met with many setbacks. Devolution – the gradual process of decentralising the powers of the Crown towards Scotland – was put forward in a referendum in 1979. A small majority of Scots approved of the reform; this majority however was insufficient according to the conditions imposed in the Scotland Act. The fall of the so-called “communist” regimes in Eastern Europe indirectly revived the nationalist cause. The Scots saw new states developing outside the Soviet Union; according to the nationalists, this was proof that medium-sized states could liberate themselves from the tutelage of a centralising power, and could develop on an economic level. From the 90s onwards, the political fortunes of the SNP gained new momentum. Local business-men and celebrities (e.g. the actor Sean Connery) proclaimed publicly their support of the SNP. The 1997 election was disappointing from the electoral point of view, but succeeded in getting rid of the Conservatives, sworn enemies of Scottish devolution. This was then introduced by the Labour Party. Tony Blair was more than reluctant, but he could not renege on the promises made by John Smith, the previous leader of the Labour Party. Moreover, devolution was ardently desired by the Scottish Labour members, whose influence is important within the party. The Scottish “particularities” were taken into account. The devolution laws gave Holyrood the powers of running public services (education, national health service). The Liberal Democrats (centre party) imposed free university registration on Labour, with whom they co-governed Scotland from 2003 to 2007. At the same time, New Labour introduced very high registration fees in England. In the health sector, additional public expenditure was agreed by the Scottish executive.

The chosen electoral system (a mixture of first-past-the-post and a list system) was carefully balanced to prevent the nationalists from gaining an absolute majority. But it could not slow down the SNP’s irresistible electoral progress. Between 2003 and 2007, the nationalists gained 20 seats, while the Labour Party lost 4. This success owes more to a rejection of the Labour Party than to a referendum on Scottish independence. Tony Blair and New Labour are even more unpopular in Scotland than in any other part of the United Kingdom. There, the Iraq War, the policy of privatising public services, or Trident – the renewal of strategic nuclear missiles carried on submarines – are hugely rejected by the public. The Scots hated Thatcherism and were never seduced by Tony Blair’s “gentle neo-liberalism”. The local Labour movement, out of step with its electorate, has paid here more than anywhere else for its right-wing policies. All the opinion polls underline this fact: the Scots want policies which redistribute wealth, tax the rich more fairly, and increase public spending. They are opposed to New Labour’s policies of privatising public services (public-private partnerships).

The SNP has promised to organise a referendum on Scottish independence “within the legislative period” without giving any further details. At the moment, this proposal has no majority. Moreover, independence is firmly rejected by the other main parties in the country. Alex Salmond, SNP leader, seems to have gambled on convincing people of his credibility in the first instance by showing that the SNP can govern Scotland more efficiently and fairly than the Labour Party. Salmond has already stated that he will not hesitate to oppose the central administration in every case where Scotland’s “vital interests” are at stake. This statement suggests a difficult cohabitation with the Scot Gordon Brown, Tony Blair’s successor. This pragmatic approach is similar to that taken by Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland. And if, in the medium term, the SNP’s social-democracy leads to something other than partition? This could be a regional autonomy very similar to that of Catalonia. In the highly centralised British state, that would already be a political revolution.

Merci à Barbara Forbes et Andrée Durand de Coorditrad pour la traduction de cet article en anglais. We wish to thank Barbara Forbes and Andrée Durand from Coorditrad for translating this paper into english.